Ukraine's Counteroffensive Stalled, Russia Continues to Gain Territory
The deteriorating state of the Ukraine Army has forced Richard Haas and Charles Kupchan to admit that Ukraine's counteroffensive has stalled. Russia has actually gained more territory in 2023 than Ukraine has.
No Breakthrough for Ukraine's Military
Despite Ukraine's efforts, its military is unable to break through Russia's formidable defenses. Russian forces have dug in behind mine fields, trenches, traps, and fortifications, making it nearly impossible for Ukraine to gain ground.
Russia's Advantage: Time and Resources
Russia's economy and defense industry are on a war footing. Moscow has access to arms from North Korea and Iran, as well as consumer items that can be repurposed for military use. Russia also has a large pool of manpower to draw from if needed. Sanctions have had only a modest effect on the Russian economy, and Putin remains politically secure and in control.
The Call for "More Cowbell" Strategy
Despite the dire situation, Haas and Kupchan propose an expanded "air defenses" strategy for Ukraine. However, none of the systems provided by the United States and NATO have been effective. The recommendation is seen as wishful thinking.
Russia Sets the Terms
Haas and Kupchan's assumption that Russia would accept a cease-fire is unrealistic. Russia knows that promises from the West are not worth the paper they are written on. Russia will dictate the terms, not Ukraine.
No Match for Russia's Defense Industry
Ukraine's plan to strike at Russian positions using long-range weapons, naval assets, and covert operations is seen as futile. Russia's defense industry is strong, and it has the resources to sustain a fight. Ukraine has none of those capabilities.
No Guarantee of Independence
The suggestion that the United States and NATO can guarantee Ukraine's independence is met with skepticism. The reality is that Russia holds the power, and Ukraine is left vulnerable. The West has no magical solution to counter Russia's aggression.
The analysis by Haas and Kupchan has left many shocked and questioning their expertise. With no clear solution in sight, the Ukraine crisis continues to escalate.
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