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Bitcoin’s Potential Performance in a Recession: A Fresh Perspective

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A Hedge Against Monetary Debasement

In a detailed analysis, on-chain analyst Will Clemente challenges the widely held belief that Bitcoin would suffer in economic downturns. He argues that BTC is a hedge against monetary debasement rather than a conventional asset tied to economic performance. According to Clemente, Bitcoin's price goes down when liquidity declines and goes up when liquidity rises.

Understanding Bitcoin's Behavior Post-December 2021

Clemente explains that Bitcoin's decline in December 2021 was due to reduced liquidity in the market, aligning with its nature as a monetary debasement hedge. He suggests that the era of stringent monetary tightening might be waning, potentially leading to increased liquidity. He argues that a recession could actually create a bullish environment for the BTC price.

A Catalyst for Increased Liquidity

Clemente believes that Bitcoin, unlike conventional assets, is not necessarily tied to the economy but historically tied to liquidity. While traditional safe havens like USD or treasuries might be favored initially in a credit crunch, he predicts that liquidity injections would follow, leading to a rapid recovery for Bitcoin.

Misconceptions and a Fresh Lens

Clemente admits that many, including himself, previously misunderstood BTC's role as a hedge. He expects a shift towards increasing liquidity with the current decline in inflation, positively influencing Bitcoin's value as a hedge against monetary debasement. He challenges skeptics to examine the correlation between Bitcoin and liquidity trends to understand its potential trajectory.

In conclusion, Clemente's analysis provides a fresh perspective on Bitcoin's potential performance in a recession. By linking the price to liquidity trends rather than direct economic performance, he offers a compelling argument for why a recession could, counterintuitively, be beneficial for Bitcoin.

At press time, BTC traded at $37,201.